Republicans are right. State redistricting benefits Democrats, in the Senate. Democrats are ahead in “sure” Senate seats by three, 17-14. Dems have a very good chance of holding Hudak's north Jeffco seat. That puts them at 18 and majority. Several other seats look good for the donkeys.

House majority close for both parties

Right now, the House is dicier for Dems than the Senate, but a lot has to go wrong for the Democrats to lose it. If Obama tanks here, that affects all the races in Arapahoe and Jefferson County. Dems are probably a little worried by recent polls putting the President down by five.

Even so, Republicans have to win six of eight contested House races to get their majority. Dems have to win three. Democrats Exum from Colorado Springs, Buckner from Aurora, and Rodosevich from Pueblo have above 50% chances of taking their House seats. Pettersen looks good and Kagan v Watson is a tossup. So Dems have a decent chance at three plus another two to get to 35.

Republican strategy leaves public in the dark

Republican strategy is perplexing. Dems have already dropped money into some tough races, giving lesser known candidates like Rodosevich, Exum, and Buckner a chance to get their names out. Not so the Republicans.

As of the end of July, the Republican party has put practically no money into campaigns. Their Republican Party Committee report to the Secretary of State suggests they closed their offices and turned off the lights in July. Their only reported expenditure for that month is for their bank statement. No consultants, no marketing, no polling – only $137 to their bank.

Republican candidate contribution reports don't show money coming in from the GOP either. Maybe that's why several Democratic candidates have hired Mad Dog Mail. This company guarantees “mail with a bite.” It's easy to picture the blitzkrieg of anti-Dem mail and robocalls from GOP 527 and 501c4 committees about to drop into Unaffiliated and lazy Republican voter mailboxes and voice mailboxes all across the state – some nasty stuff.  Mad Dog will be the Dem backstop.

Dems show they've dropped thousands into races

Dem reporting to the Secretary of State shows thousands of dollars out to candidates in close races. The candidates can use the money to customize their messages, although a lot of that work is done at Dem headquarters based on polling.

As of now, Republicans are leaving Crowder in southern Colorado and Navarro-Ratzlaff in Pueblo underfunded, given the positive Republican performance numbers in their districts. Barker, an incumbent, is underwater to Exum in Colorado Springs, and Acree, also an incumbent, may not have enough money to offset Buckner's positive registration and voter performance numbers in Aurora.

The Republican strategy to not give away their strategy may prove smart in the end. But it risks leaving their candidates not feeling the love from their party. Crowder has put lots of his own money in his race. Brown, the singing cowboy from Ignacio, has less money than attorney McLachlan, mostly because Dems have helped McLachlan out.

At the very least, the GOP may want to get its Secretary of State reporting squared away. Generous Republican supporters probably want to know that the party still has staff, desks, paper clips, and computers to help their candidates someway, sometime.

This post was published on August 9, 2012. Permalink »